Runaway Climate Change
// July 7th, 2010 // Comments Off // Foresight
Well, whether you believe human’s cause or significantly contributes to climate change or not, the evidence is starting to pour in that not only is change occurring – above our long term averages – but that it is also accelerating.
In the past weeks there have been at least two items reported prominently in my local newspaper that confirm the trajectory that the best scientific minds with the most evidence can currently discern:
1. Average temperature is set to rise by 4 degrees centigrade over the rest of this century. It has long be held that a rise of only 2 degrees centigrade would be sufficient to significantly imperil our – that’s humanity’s – current way of being in the world. Think failing food chains, significant ice cap loss like the entire Greenland ice sheet, massive disruption and dramatic variability in local weather conditions around the globe.
2. Average sea level is set to rise by 1 meter or more by the end of the century, if the global average temperature increase is at or more than 2 degrees centigrade. Remember that a centimetre sea level rise can lead to an increase of sea water encroachment on land by up to 1 meter – due to storm surges, beach and headland erosion etc. Obviously this would be most prominent in coastal regions that are closer to sea level; but also note that the majority of the world’s most populated cities are built around low lying ports, docks and river systems.
There are, unfortunately, massive feedback loops poised to take an increasing global temperature average and accelerate its change even faster. The one that most concerns me, and fascinates me, is Methane Clathrate deposits – increasingly becoming known as the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. (more…)
Greenfields