Posts Tagged ‘Foresight’

Applying Integral Foresight

// January 5th, 2011 // Comments Off // Foresight, Opinion

matrix-code-meditatorLate last year I remembered that I was a member of the Shaping Tomorrow Ning group – the largest collection of futures orientated thinkers and actors in the world – and was responsible for the Integral Foresight group… very little activity I’m afraid to report.  So, in a very unsuccessful effort to prompt some discussion I wrote the following post.  Thought that since most of my posts on this site are automated, a little original content wouldn’t go astray;)

——->

I was prompted by Richard Slaughter to remember that I have some responsibility for this group, being the one to start it… I’m sure many of you would have if I hadn’t;)  That said, I note the lack of discussion and thought I’d throw a hat in the ring and see if anyone bites…

Reporting from the front lines…. Any recent stories about Integral Futures?

* Explicit
* Implicit
* Sore lack of
* Natural emergence of
* Personal journeys…

For myself, I was visiting with Saniel Bonder, founder of Waking Down in Mutuality (and teacher at the Integral Spiritual Experience series), last month when he read out a great quote that emergently clarified where I am at with ‘Integral Futures,’ or more precisely Ken Wilber’s brand of integral theory. It is by Robert Godwin PhD, in his book “One Cosmos Under God:”

His [Ken Wilber's] work is a tremendous influence on my earlier intellectual development, and to a large extent one leaves his imposing corpus asking the question, “What’s left to say?” In order to have any thoughts of my own, I had to make him sort of an “unfluence,” even though no human who deserves the name should be unfamiliar with his work.   [emphasis added]

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Holacracy, Literacies and Organisational Transformation

// July 13th, 2010 // 3 Comments » // Opinion

Over the last couple of years I’ve had several people point me towards a new “breakthrough” “amazing” “truly integral” “third tier” approach to organisational design and management: Holacracy.  The implication was you need to learn this; the nice side was that people aligned my interests with ‘breakthrough,’ ‘amazing,’ ‘truly integral’ and ‘third tier.’

Frankly, in the world of organisations and getting things done collectively, I’ll settle for anything ‘first tier’ that actually works!  For those not familiar with ‘first tier’ whatever, don’t worry, the references in this piece stop here (or start here if you’re curious – but be warned it’s a deep rabbit hole;).  I’m also quite wary of new ‘management methods’ as they populate like rabbits, and tend to be as useful as the proverbial lucky rabbits foot.

Holacracy is, as the name suggests, an organisational governance method that attempts to embody Holarchy.   Hol what?  Well, holoarchy is an extension of the philosophical observation of holons, a term coined by Arthur Koestler, and popularised most recently by Ken Wilber and his version of Integral Theory, the AQAL model.  A Holon is anything that is both a part and a whole at the same time.  A whole/part – a brief history of holons is here.  The organisational approach is that there are natural (read ‘healthy’) collections of holons (the part aspect) that form functional wholes (teams, organisations etc).  Just so we’re clear, Holacracy isn’t the first effort at this… just the most recent, and the one most often passing across my desk lately.   It is also a misapplication, technically speaking, of how Ken Wilber would regard a holon… another messy little rabbit hole if ever I journeyed one;)

The other week I had a discussion with the executive staff and executive director of a community organisation in the USA.  The community has thousands of loosely associated members worldwide, a 15+ year formation history, and real viability challenges in terms of ‘getting things done.’  Well, that’s not  quite right, they’ve survived this long right?  But from their point of view, they’re looking to take the next steps towards greater coherency in collective actions.  Something most organisations can relate to…

In presenting an opportunity for a (pro-bono) strategic foresight project to them, the method of Holacracy again reared its’ head.   Apparently it’s the flavour of the month, something everyone is aligned to and looking to implement as their next big step.

Well, in line with that, I’d like to offer some reflections as someone who has engaged in organisational establishment and transformation professionally for the past 10+ years.  Let’s call them some not-so-subtle cautionary considerations.  Not-so-subtle largely because I’m in a hurry, but also because I want the warnings to stand out clearly for them: they’ll risk being called half formed, biased and non-appreciative… but if they are, at least we’re talking about them.

So, what are my warnings?  Well, let’s start with a fly-by critique.  Holacracy could easily be described (negatively) as: (more…)

Runaway Climate Change

// July 7th, 2010 // Comments Off // Foresight

Well, whether you believe human’s cause or significantly contributes to climate change or not, the evidence is starting to pour in that not only is change occurring – above our long term averages – but that it is also accelerating.

In the past weeks there have been at least two items reported prominently in my local newspaper that confirm the trajectory that the best scientific minds with the most evidence can currently discern:

1.  Average temperature is set to rise by 4 degrees centigrade over the rest of this century.  It has long be held that a rise of only 2 degrees centigrade would be sufficient to significantly imperil our – that’s humanity’s – current way of being in the world.  Think failing food chains, significant ice cap loss like the entire Greenland ice sheet, massive disruption and dramatic variability in local weather conditions around the globe.

2.  Average sea level is set to rise by 1 meter or more by the end of the century, if the global average temperature increase is at or more than 2 degrees centigrade.  Remember that a centimetre sea level rise can lead to an increase of sea water encroachment on land by up to 1 meter – due to storm surges, beach and headland erosion etc.   Obviously this would be most prominent in coastal regions that are closer to sea level; but also note that the majority of the world’s most populated cities are built around low lying ports, docks and river systems.

There are, unfortunately, massive feedback loops poised to take an increasing global temperature average and accelerate its change even faster.  The one that most concerns me, and fascinates me, is Methane Clathrate deposits – increasingly becoming known as the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis.  (more…)

The End Is Nigh. Be Positive.

// September 22nd, 2007 // Comments Off // Opinion

Futurist, social commentator, academic and general rabble rouser Dr Richard Eckersley (director of Australia 21, a non-profit, public-interest research company, and a visiting fellow at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at the Australian National University) has had a very thought provoking opinion piece published in the Melbourne’s Age newspaper today. It is called “The End is Nigh. Be Positive.”

With clear an accessible prose Eckersley invites the reader to consider the psychological impact of the current images of the future that our industrialised societies hold: about war, famine, pandemics etc. He explores the crucial link between they stories we collective use to frame our situation and the type of social interactions these lead to and the type of actions these make possible.

Changing the story, he proposes, is one of the most effective ways to start shaping how we will collectively respond to the challenges of our times… Well worth the read…

From Blog to Broadsheet

// July 2nd, 2007 // Comments Off // Opinion

Two of our writers here at Futuristics [ed: the blog these old posts came from] have had opinion pieces published recently in Victoria’s Age newspaper. Josh Floyd today draws an adroit and principle based line to argue for a social morality foundation to developing Australia’s carbon trading system, while Stephen McGrail (following up January, February and April opinion pieces) leveraged comments made by Dalai Lama in his recent visit to explore the implications of ‘enlightened self-interest’ for business strategies appropriate to the 21st Century.

Both articles are worth noting for the progressive yet pragmatic approach they take to address the complexity of responding to humanity’s sustainability challenge. From my vantage point, albeit a biased one for several reasons, it’s great to see the fruits of Swinburne’s strategic foresight program beginning to be more publicly displayed. Whether it’s the course or the people it attracts, or a combination of both, there’s hope in them there hills;)

Take a break from Enviro-Economic ‘doom and gloom’

// June 18th, 2007 // Comments Off // Opinion

The Age today carries a truly inspiring story of what many might now consider “getting it right” with balancing the economy, the environment and society generally. Or in a word, a viable sustainability.

Vaxjo in Sweden started heading for fossil fuel independence in 1996. They hope to finally be free from oil by 2020 (they have no real fossil fuel resources themselves to speak of). And, while there are challenges ahead, they seem basically on track. The interesting lesson for other Western countries (although the article emphasises the interest that China is showing in their success) is that they have done it while keeping growth at 5%, unemployment at 4% and they’ve also been phasing out nuclear energy along the way.

Admittedly the Swedish culture is quite different from other nations of the world – its communal, progressive, nature loving features are hard to find so deeply embedded in other countries. But while their collective value system may be playing a huge role in their success with transitioning to sustainability, it isn’t something that can’t be compensated for to some degree by novel approaches in other areas . Innovation being something that most Western countries pride themselves on.

So, instead of the doom and gloom, take a break, and be refreshed by the arctic fresh air of one viable pathway to a desirable, sustainable and prosperous future.

The Secret and Magical Futures

// March 20th, 2007 // Comments Off // About

In describing what I actually do as a futurist, and as ever, trying to fit into the 30 second elevator pitch at parties, I’ve often come back to a joking stance: “I’m a rigorous imagination technician. Not engineer, that you do for yourself. But technician, helping explain how things work, yes, that I do with imagination, vision, images of the future and how to get there or avoid going there.”

Despite the critical-reflexive, self/client empowering, non-deterministic and inherent action orientation of this stance, I still get dumbfounded by the level of magical thinking in our society when it comes to the future. Whether it be techno-optimists who religiously fantasise and proselytise that we will create technology beyond our dreams and solve every problem and open up impossible means of transcendence, all at the flick of a psychic switch, or new-age retro-romantics who have read the cards, studied their sun signs for the year and, in the middle of a primal scream session had a sudden realisation gifted by an animal spirit that their future would require we do away with all technology, they all have one thing regularly in common: magical thinking. (more…)

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